Consistency evaluation as a clear expected event, although there is a possibility of lag, but the probability of policy relaxation is not large, it is expected to bring about industry changes. Focusing on the consistency evaluation policy, it is recommended to focus on upstream technological advantages and export-approved APIs. Enterprise: Huahai Pharmaceutical, leading accessories company:
Shanhe Yaofu, Erkang Pharmaceutical; CRO enterprises that undertake the consistency evaluation business in the middle reaches: Taige Medicine, Boji Medicine; downstream enjoy the export preparation exemption consistency evaluation and research and development technology of generic enterprises: Hengrui Medicine, Huahai Pharmaceutical , Xinlitai, North China Pharmaceutical.
The overall growth of the industry tends to be flat, and has rebounded slightly since this year: China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was under pressure in 2015, and its revenue growth rate fell below 10%. The overall situation in the first four months of 2016 has improved, and fixed assets in January-May. The completion rate was slightly higher than the growth rate, and the industrial added value increased by 10.2% year-on-year. It was basically the same as that in 2015. Compared with the growth rate of GDP, the advantage was narrowing. The import and export volume of medicines in January-April increased slightly. In the first quarter, the growth rate of the operating income and returning net profit of the pharmaceutical sector increased slightly. Among them, the medical service sector is one of the hot spots for market investors to continue to pay attention to. The continuous impact of controlled fees, traditional medicines such as chemical preparations, biological products and traditional Chinese medicines. Manufacturing companies' performance has been flat, but some bulk APIs have benefited from the previous price increases, and the performance growth rate is obvious.
The market is in sync with the market, and the valuation is at a medium-high level: the pharmaceutical sector has not gone out of the better market, and more is the market synchronization. As of June 24, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biological Index has fallen by 20.38%. In contrast, it is backward. In the broader market index, it ranks among the top ten industries in Shenwan. Among the secondary industry indices, medical services, biological products, and pharmaceutical businesses declined less, while the medical device and Chinese medicine industries fell by 23.35% and 22.72%. The overall P/E ratio of the pharmaceutical bio-sector is 40X and the P/B ratio is 4.41X. Although it has been adjusted from the previous period, it is still at the mid-to-high level since 2012.
Consensus evaluation promotes supply-side reform, which is good for CRO and generic drug companies: In 2016, the pharmaceutical industry policy was frequent, and the generic re-evaluation policy for generic drugs was officially launched in the first half of this year. The policy is expected to eliminate low-quality generic drugs, and the next three years. Industry reshuffle, mergers and restructuring are inevitable. Comparing the development history of the US and Japan's consistency evaluation, we believe that China and Japan are more similar. China's consistency evaluation also requires time and experience to accumulate a large number of generic drug approvals. The implementation of the consistency evaluation will directly benefit the CRO industry, high-quality auxiliary materials and raw material medicine manufacturers, and strong research and development leading pharmaceutical companies.
Risk Warning: The progress of the consistency assessment is less than the expected risk and the market valuation risk.
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