The price increase is still in the controllable interval

The high prices are the outstanding contradictions in the current economic operation. Although prices were running high in the first half of the year, they were still in a controllable range. A series of policy combinations are constantly increasing -

The opening year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is nearly half an instant. In the first half of the inventory, the outstanding performance is that the national economy continues to maintain a steady growth trend, and economic operation is developing in the expected direction of macro-control; the prominent contradiction is the high prices and the pressure of inflation expectations. Increase. Maintaining the basic stability of the general price level has become the primary task and the most urgent task for this year's macro-control.

The current rapid rise in prices affects the people. The recent macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in May, the CPI (consumer price index) was 5.5%, the highest in 34 months. Prices started to rise from the second half of last year and rose rapidly after the fourth quarter. For half a year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has been consolidating at a rate of 4.9% or more. It was 4.9% in January and February, 5.4% in March, and 5.3% in April.

This year, another important economic indicator reflecting the change in the price situation, the PPI (producer price index), is also at a high level. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been above 6.6%, from January to May was 6.6%, 7.2%, 7.3%, 6.8% and 6.8% respectively.

There are many reasons for the price increase. There are international and domestic factors. Zhang Xiaojing, director of the macroeconomic research department of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that there are three reasons why the liquidity is sufficient or excess, the cost is driven, and foreign input is promoted. Quantitative easing monetary policy in some countries in the world has led to ample liquidity in the world. In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, China has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, which has allowed the M2 (generalized currency amount) base to continue to grow.

The cost of pushing up prices has a certain degree of rigidity. From the point of view of agricultural products alone, the increase in labor costs, production materials costs, and transport costs has directly boosted the rise in agricultural product prices. Coupled with the long-term tight balance in agricultural product supply, considering the law of value, the slow rise in agricultural product prices is not only present but also future. trend. The continuous rise in the prices of international bulk commodities will inevitably be transmitted to the country. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to March this year, the prices of crude oil, soybeans, coal, and iron ore imported from China rose by 24.5%, 25.6%, 21%, and 62.6% year-on-year. From the economic indicators such as the PPI and the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) that have been announced, the transmission of high international commodity prices to the domestic price market has boosted the price of upstream products.

High commodity prices will not only increase the production cost of enterprises, increase the expenditure of residents' lives, affect the basic life of low-income groups, but also have an adverse effect on the healthy operation of the national economy.

The trend of price increase is still going on, but how to treat the current price level in the controllable range as a whole is related to the orientation of macro-control decisions.

Considering that the three major factors driving price rises at the same time, experts generally believe that the CPI will continue to rise in June, but with the implementation of macro-control policies and the balance of total supply and demand, the CPI will fall to a certain extent in the second half of the year. Although the current price level is relatively high and the inflationary pressure is relatively high, the overall price level is still in a controllable range.

First of all, this round of high prices is structural.

At present, structural food prices such as food and housing are under great pressure. The statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics in May showed that food prices rose by 11.7%, affecting CPI by 3.5% and accounting for 63.6% of the year-on-year increase in CPI. In May, the year-on-year price of live pigs rose by 40.4% and contributed nearly 20% to CPI. Although the housing price has cooled down, the upward trend is still continuing. The change of house prices in May in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country issued by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 18 showed that compared with the same period of last year, there were 3 cities with a decrease in prices, and 36 cases saw a decrease in their prices. In May, the number of cities with a year-on-year increase of less than 5% increased by 7 from April. In this regard, Chen Houyi, deputy head of the China Economic Law Research Association, said that the structural supply problem has been resolved and CPI will fall back.

Second, the current economy still maintains a steady growth trend, and inflation has not caused any significant drag on economic growth. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, fiscal revenue increased by 32%, fixed assets investment increased by 25.8%, and real estate development investment increased by 34.6%. In May, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 13.3% year-on-year, indicating that the real economy maintained a steady growth. The May PMI was 52%, indicating that the economy is in a stable expansion channel.

In view of the current situation of high prices, we must increase confidence in stabilizing prices. Ren Liu, a professor at the School of Public Management at Renmin University of China, said that as long as the efforts are made in key areas and key areas, stable prices are expected to achieve their intended purposes. At present, there are many favorable factors for stabilizing prices. China's stocks are abundant, and the increase in production of summer grains is a foregone conclusion. The total supply of major industrial products is in excess of demand. Investment, consumption, and exports have grown steadily. Domestic demand has played a stronger supporting role. Stabilizing prices has a solid material foundation and institutional conditions.

The combination of policies to stabilize prices, has seen a positive signal to achieve this year's goal of controlling the overall level of prices at 4% or so, has many difficulties, and we must overcome difficulties and stabilize prices.

Zhang Xiaojing believes that in the near future, due to the fact that the three major driving factors of price will not disappear in the short term, together with the carryover of prices in 2010, even if there is no new price increase factor after the first quarter, control this year's CPI at 4 Difficulties exist around %. Moreover, China is in a period of economic transition. Although the vast majority of commodity prices and service prices are formed by market games and eventually become reasonably priced, there are still many commodity prices and service prices that still have distorted values ​​and prices that are not in compliance. The price mechanism is still heavy and difficult.

As early as the beginning of the year, the Central Government had made stable prices the top priority for this year’s macroeconomic regulation. The State Council has started to control currency, develop production, secure supply, invigorate circulation, and strengthen supervision. It has made overall arrangements for stabilizing the general price level and requires close attention at home and abroad. The impact of changes in the economic environment on the price trend, timely detection of abnormal factors in price fluctuations, timely adoption of a variety of measures to control price increases within acceptable limits, and resolutely prevent prices from rising too quickly.

The combination of policy punches is fierce and dense. On the day when the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data on June 14, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the deposit reserve ratio. This is the twelfth time since 2010, and it is the sixth time since this year. In addition to quantitative tools, the central bank also intensively uses price tools. Since December last year, the central bank has raised interest rates three times. This is intended to provide a monetary condition without raising prices by implementing a prudent monetary policy. In order to stabilize prices, the policy calls for unrelenting efforts to do a good job in agriculture and grain production, comprehensively strengthen price supervision, increase price supervision and inspections, and severely investigate and deal with illegal acts such as malicious speculation, collusion of price increases, and price hikes, and maintain the normal market order.

Chen Houyi believes that in the past six months, we have seen a positive signal in striving to stabilize prices. Despite the high CPI in May, the increase rate of the chain is weakening. The general increase in property prices has cooled. In May and April, compared with April, there are 9 cities in which the prices have dropped, and 11 cities have remained flat. The price of the capital market maintained an overall box vibration pattern and stabilized.

The price situation, which is related to people's livelihood, and the smooth and healthy operation of the national economy, must be highly valued. It is necessary to strengthen the pertinence, flexibility, and effectiveness of macro-control, handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic growth, adjusting the structure, and managing inflation, safeguard market supply, ensure the basic livelihood of the people, and stabilize the overall price level.