High-end liquor prices continue to fry the house as the storm continues to fry maotai?

"It's not as good as fried maotai." This is a true portrayal of the liquor market this year.

Since May of this year, the liquor market has entered the traditional off-season. However, this year's high-end liquor has unexpectedly increased. The national liquor Maotai broke through the thousand-yuan mark even this summer. For these reasons, the initial word of the company was “raw material prices”. After experiencing rounds of price increases, the reason was attributed to the fact that “raw materials” was clearly untenable, so the product structure adjustment and liquor consumption tax The adjustment is considered to be the reason for the increase in prices. Recently, the “price increase is just a dealer’s behavior” sounds, and the Maotai Distillery also said: “We have no way to increase the price of dealers, and the market price of Maotai is now Can't control it."

Ice Fire Two Heavens

After the "May 1st" this year, white wine entered the off-season, and the "price reduction promotion" period of the liquor market has come. In the middle and low-end liquor market, the price cuts are up to 60%, and the average price drop is about 15%; however, Maotai and Wuliangye The value of such high-end liquor is still high, among them, the value of Maotai has been rising all the way, the price of supermarkets and shopping malls in first-tier cities has reached 1,180 yuan, and there is still insufficient supply.

According to analysis by professionals from the China Wine Market Research Center, in addition to coping with sales in the off-season, low-end white spirits engage in large-scale promotions. In addition, some companies are eager to withdraw funds because of increased labor costs and personnel expenses. Therefore, they adopt low-cost promotions to increase sales. Sales volume, because the middle and low-end liquor is relatively confusing in the pricing mechanism, a company cuts prices, and other brands will move with the wind.

According to incomplete statistics, there are nearly 40,000 liquor companies in China. After experiencing continuous production cuts for five years, liquor accounts for about 15% of the entire wine industry. Among them, there are 20 companies with profits and taxes exceeding RMB 100 million, accounting for 61.8% of the industry's profit and tax share. This data shows that the industry is currently focusing on decentralized production, which has led to increasing polarization.

Looking at the situation, when most of the liquor companies face the upcoming sales season and rack their brains to choose a promotion plan, Maotai Distillery has been “scratched” because of the “high uncontrollable” prices.

Earlier this year, after announcing an increase in the ex-factory price, Maotai Winery introduced a “price limit order” that stipulates that the retail price of 53-degree flying maotai should not exceed 730 yuan. Today, the limit price of Maotai retail terminals has already become a waste of paper.

According to Luzhou Laojiao's dealers in Beijing, the retail price of the 51 degree national cellar 1573 in Beijing rose from 658 yuan to 788 yuan in just a few days, an increase of more than 100 yuan.

“This year, liquor is almost always a price for several days. At present, the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day are approaching. All high-end liquor prices are estimated to increase,” some dealers said.

Has nothing to do with costs

Some people have done statistics, Maotai's terminal retail price rose from 300 yuan to close to 1,000 yuan, but spent 3 years or so, it is not inferior to the property market.

Luzhou Laojiao became the first company to positively confirm price increase information this year. Xie Ming, chairman of the group, publicly revealed after the shareholders’ meeting that the high-end product line Guojiao 1573 has started to increase prices. This time, Luzhou Laojiao attributed the rise in prices to a rise in raw materials and an increase in market supply and demand. According to sources from Luzhou Laojiao, in order to guarantee the taste, high-end liquors usually use locally produced sorghum. In March of this year, drought occurred in the sorghum-original production area in southern Sichuan, and early maturation occurred again in August. The sorghum produced a large area of ​​reduced production and increased prices, stimulating prices of wine to some extent. In addition, the more important reason is the imbalance between supply and demand. Nowadays, “drinking less alcohol, drinking good wine, and sending famous wines” has become an important consumer trend, especially in large and medium-sized cities in developed regions. Middle-to-high-end liquor is the main consumer of alcohol. However, on the supply side, high-end liquor is limited by various factors such as the production cycle, and production is limited.

There is a longer brewing cycle for mid- to high-end liquors, and Maotai, which has the longest brewing cycle, needs a five-year cycle. The periodicity of liquor brewing has limited the growth of its production capacity. In the case of limited capacity growth, liquor companies must ensure that their performance grows and price increases become an effective tool. Today, it has become a fixed model for liquor companies to raise prices through brand building and raise prices through brands.

This is related to the concept of public consumption in our country. The rigid demand created by public spending and gift-giving consumption has caused the market to be insensitive to the price increase of middle-to-high-end liquor, and has even produced counteractions. That is, when other high-end wine prices increase, certain brands do not raise prices. At that time, it may be considered that it is not "high-grade," but it will affect sales. From this perspective, the price increase is to maintain its "high-grade" needs, "small profits but quick turnover" business philosophy in the high-end liquor market does not apply. The prevailing status quo of high-grade liquor carrying the “public relations” and “face” functions and the “buy not drink, not drink” status often makes consumers “only buy the most expensive and do not buy the best”. The mid-year report of this year's wine industry shows that Yanghe's net profit rose 81% year-on-year; Wuliangye increased 44% year-on-year; Luzhou Laojiao increased 22% year-on-year; and Maotai, which had the smallest increase in net profit, also reached 11%. In the performance report, the wine enterprises generally mentioned the increase in profit rate brought about by the price increase factor at the beginning of the year. It can be seen that price increase is an effective means to improve the performance of liquor companies.

As we all know, the brand resources of “Mao Wu Jian” are scarce, and there is still a certain space for brand premium. Therefore, they tend to “price from my needs based on market and profit”, which is an identity game that high-end brands can only afford.

It can be seen from the past few years that Maotai has risen and other brands have also followed up. Haitong Securities analyst pointed out that the high price of high-end liquor in the middle of 2010 was the leader and the highest increase was Kweichow Moutai. Wuliangye, the price follower, naturally does not want the price of its own products to be too expensive and too long for Moutai. Even Guojiao 1573 and Shuijingfang, which are high-end products, will not be willing to break away from the high-end liquor brands.

"Liquor is followed up, this is related to the consumer habits of the industry, to buy wine are for entertainment or as a gift to friends and family, so the higher the price the easier to sell, many consumers buy wine are to see the brand, see the price , Buying only expensive mentality also led to frequent price hikes by manufacturers and distributors, "said industry sources.

Manufacturers have also pushed the price increase to “partial distributors” because the direct contact with consumers is the terminal stores and franchise stores under the control of the distributors. After all, because the drinks dealers are more closely exposed to the market, the reaction will be very sensitive. They will estimate the changes in the market and make profits in advance of the price increase. Wait until the manufacturers announce the price increase notification and wait for an opportunity to adjust the price of the product.

Industry insiders frankly say that in fact liquor prices are artificially high. Liquor sales season is concentrated in the second half of the year. Many people drink alcohol in the first half of the year and sell it at high prices in the second half of the year to earn more profits. For example, dealers who plan to purchase 5 tons in the first half of the year will not sell more than 2 tons in the first half of the year. Others will be sold until the second half of the year, which leads to the frequent shortage of liquors from many brands.
Investing in high-end liquor becomes popular

With the continuous price increase in recent years, high-end liquor has become a collector's "new darling." "Importing liquor, playing gold," and "fried wine better than speculation" and other investment concepts are constantly mentioned.

"53 degrees flying Maotai last year's price of up to 600 yuan per bottle, is now breaking through 1,000 yuan, the annual rate of return of more than 65%." An industry source believes that liquor can not ignore the impact of investment attributes on the out of stock, he himself There are 21 boxes of Maotai, which is the investment value of high-end liquor, similar to real estate and stocks.

There are bulk cargo dealers who say that it is better to buy fried maotai stocks than direct maotai, and Maotai’s stocks have surpassed real estate for several years. Last year, the stocks of Maotai which had been stockpiled have appreciated by 80%.

In general, the price increase behavior of enterprises will be constrained by the market. Since the price increase will affect the sales of commodities, companies will generally adopt prudent pricing measures. The liquor industry is also a fully competitive industry. It is said that companies will also raise their product prices with caution. However, due to the increasing market demand for high-end liquor sales, there is also support for public funds consumption, and the consumption of public funds has a certain degree of Price-insensitive characteristics, so high-end liquor has become a value-added investment products.

In this big cake, dealers and hot money naturally will not let go. Zhou Sianran, a food industry researcher at China Investment Advisors Co., Ltd., said that the liquor producers controlled the shipment of products and the distributors' stocks restricted the circulation of products on the market. These measures triggered the supply and demand of the liquor market, resulting in rising liquor prices and financial speculation. It pushed up the price again and amplified the situation.

The rapid economic development has brought about a rapid division of social strata and an overall upgrade of consumption. There are more and more people who consume high-end wines, consumption has increased geometrically, and the value center of products has been constantly moving upwards. The premium space for brands is also growing. Some analysts predict that the market size of high-end liquor in 2010 will reach 85 billion yuan. "Drinking less alcohol, drinking good wine, and sending famous wines" has become an important consumer trend. Especially in developed regions and large and medium-sized cities, middle-to-high-end liquor has become the main force of consumption, and the demand for high-end liquor by the people continues to grow.

Some analysts believe that from the medium to long term, China's liquor consumption is in a transition period from low to high, while high-end white wine meets this upgrade trend, there is still a large market space. With the rapid growth of China's national economy, the growth trend of household consumption, corporate consumption, and government consumption will continue. At the same time, the rapid economic development will also lead to an overall upgrade of consumption, and more and more consumers of high-end liquor will also grow. Together with the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday season and the end of the year, the wholesale season will bring wholesale and retail levels to be active ahead of schedule, which will bring seasonal speculation to high-end products.