** Policy stimulus demand analysis indicates that the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks is still reasonable

Core Tip: The most prominent feature of the medical industry is stable growth. The growth rate in 2011 is expected to be relatively stable, similar to last year. In the past few years, the growth rate of the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry has been measured at the lowest level of 16% and the highest rate of 28%. In the worst period of 2008, it had a 20% increase. These figures are only sales growth, profit growth will be higher, stock prices will also have a premium.

“The biggest opportunities in the current pharmaceutical industry are the stimulation of market demand by medical insurance policies, the growth of government investment year by year, and the opening up of social capital to the medical industry.” said Li Wenjian, fund manager of E Fund Healthcare Healthcare Fund, “one of the most prominent features of the medical industry. It is stable growth, and the growth rate in 2011 is expected to be stable, similar to that of last year.In the past few years, the growth rate of sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry has been calculated on a quarterly basis, with a minimum of 16% and a maximum of 28%. 20% growth. These figures are only sales growth, profit growth will be higher, stock prices will also have a premium."

Li Wenjian, graduated from Peking University Medical Biology Masters, has more than 10 years of research experience in the pharmaceutical industry. He can be called the first generation of Chinese pharmaceutical industry researcher. His research on the industry has been fruitful.

“In 2011, all sub-sectors of medicine are bred with major investment themes. The entire industry can be said to be brilliant.” Li Wenjian told reporters.

Wonderful investment themes

Specifically, the seven major themes are worth looking at. First, with the advancement of the basic drug policy, some essential drug types, especially exclusive varieties, are expected to achieve explosive growth; second, the 2009 version of the medical insurance list is gradually implemented in all provinces and cities, and prescription drugs will end the wait-and-see situation in 2010. Recovery growth is expected to occur; the third is the preparation of export business, after years of cultivation, technology and management gradually and international standards, in 2011 is expected to achieve a fundamental breakthrough; fourth is the brand of traditional Chinese medicine varieties, in the context of inflation, the price is expected to Further increase; Fifth, large-scale pharmaceutical distribution companies, continue to purchase and merge across the country, bigger and stronger; Sixth, in the context of the government to increase investment in county-level medical institutions, the medical device industry will enter a new round of strong demand; Seven is The government encourages social capital to invest in the medical service industry and participate in the restructuring of public hospitals. This has cleared policy barriers for the development of medical service companies.

Valuation is still reasonable

Although the growth prospects are good, but whether the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks is already high? Li Wenjian believes that the relative valuation of pharmaceutical stocks is still at a reasonable level. According to Wind's P/E method, as of December 3, 2010, the average PE of the CSI 300 was 15.36 times, the average PE of the pharmaceutical stocks was 47.74 times, and that of the medical sector PE/Hubei 300 PE was 3.11 times. In the context of inflation, the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks will not be too low, and the market is unlikely to have only a dozen times. A relative premium is acceptable, and when the bear market is at its worst, a valuation of 20 times for pharmaceutical stocks is already at the bottom. Judging from the historical premium rate, the pharmaceutical industry is currently in a reasonable range, and the industry will use the rapid growth to resolve valuation pressures.

If valuations for pharmaceutical companies are based on 2011 earnings forecasts, most companies will have a valuation of 30 times. Although this level is higher than that of banks, real estate, and other cyclical industries, it is not as high as TMT, new energy, and new materials in emerging industries. In addition, the growth of the pharmaceutical industry is determined and stable. It is expected that the industry's profit growth will be around 30% in 2011. Most companies' PEGs are also close to 1, which is reasonable.

The latest industry research report published by CICC also believes that the pharmaceutical industry is still at a high growth stage in terms of absolute growth and profitability, and the industry's fundamentals are very healthy. Recently, the overall medical sector has been adjusted. The current overall sector PE (TTM) has reached about 42 times, which is slightly lower than the market's overall valuation premium. At present, the pharmaceutical sector is about 35 times PE in 2011, and the valuation is in a reasonable range.

Li Wenjian added that applying Peter? Lynch's remark: It's not a reason to sell more, it's not a reason to sell. The essence of stock investment is to look at the future. If there is more space for future growth, stocks will continue to rise. PE is a consideration, but it is not a decisive factor. Investment mainly depends on future expectations. If future expectations are very optimistic, a slightly higher valuation is acceptable because future growth can resolve this risk.

Gold 10 years

“The next 10 years will be 10 years of gold. For the past 10 years or so, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry will have an unexpected rate of development. I dare to say that all our plans will lag behind. "The deputy director of the Expert Committee on Biological Medicine of the National Development and Reform Commission and the President of the Chinese Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, Yu Mingde, said in an interview with the media.

Li Wenjian believes that the healthcare industry has great development prospects in China. In summary, there are currently three major factors that continue to drive the development of related industries.

The first is to benefit from the "new healthcare reform" and the "12th Five-Year Plan" policy-driven. After the launch of the “New Medical Reform”, the state expects to invest a total of 850 billion yuan in 2009 and 2011, including gradually increasing the level of medical insurance and strengthening medical facility construction, which will have a positive impact on the upstream and downstream health care industry chains. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” attaches great importance to the development of strategic emerging industries, and relevant supporting policies are gradually being introduced, which will usher in new development opportunities for emerging industries such as biomedicine, medical devices and modern Chinese medicine.

The second is the drive for the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption. With the improvement of social development and income levels, the people’s attitude towards health is more positive and the concept is changing. People need to “get well-to-do” and be “healthy”. Since 2000, the per capita medical care expenditure of urban residents has steadily increased. Consumption is gradually escalating.

Data from the Ministry of Health shows that since 2000, the per capita health care expenditure of urban households in China has been growing steadily. From 2002 to 2009, the compound annual growth rate of this indicator is above 11%. Medical consumption is gradually escalating, which will become the basis for supporting the long-term development of China's healthcare industry.

The third driving factor is the aging of the population. Aging will be a thorny problem on the road to economic and social development in China in the next half-century or even longer. According to the prediction of the National Family Planning Commission, by the twentieth century, the population aged over 65 will reach 242 million, which will increase from 6.96% in 2000 to nearly 12%. Aging will bring about continuous demand for the healthcare industry.

In the coming years, these three factors will form a concerted effort and a period of rapid growth may occur. From a longer-term perspective 10 years later, the pharmaceutical industry is also a weak-cycle, long-term and stable growth industry.

Where are the opportunities for individual stocks?

CIC Securities believes that the overall adjustment of the pharmaceutical industry has been basically put in place and the valuation is attractive. From the medium-term perspective, most pharmaceutical stocks already have buying value, but the probability of a short-term overall market is small, and opportunities still exist in individual stocks.

Shenyin Wanguo industry analysts stated that under the background of the government's control of inflation and shrinking liquidity in 2011, the market may have a hard time repeating the overall rise in the pharmaceutical sector driven by liquidity in 2010, but the pharmaceutical industry is growing rapidly, with individual stock opportunities. Always exist.

From the performance of the sector in 2010, the worst companies are mainly overpriced new shares. The best performers can be divided into three categories: growth companies, such as: Diving Medical, Dong-E Ejiao, Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Al-Ayer Ophthalmology, Renfu Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical; inflection point companies such as: Haixiang Pharmaceutical, Ziguang Guhan, Huadong Medicine, Renhe Pharmaceutical; theme-based companies such as Huashen Group, Zixin Pharmaceutical, and General Policy Medical, Hainan Hai Yao, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical.

With the promotion of innovation and integration, it is expected that 100 billion yuan worth of market capitalization companies will be created in the next three years. Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, which has breakthroughs in innovative drugs, and Donga Ejiao, which is creating “Nourishing No.1 Brand”, may reach the market value of RMB 100 billion at the earliest; Yunnan Baiyao is clearly a company with the market value of the most capable of hundreds of billions, but it is not implemented by the management team. Effective incentives have become the biggest factor constraining the development of the company; the huge market size of Chinese herbal medicines and traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces will create companies with a market value of 100 billion yuan. Whether or not the market value of Kangmei pharmaceuticals that are being integrated in this industry can reach hundreds of billions will depend on the management capabilities of the company. As well as the ability to control the terminal in the future, Columbine Pharmaceuticals' large infusion industry still has a lot of room for integration. Whether the company's market value can reach 100 billion yuan depends on whether it can continue to dance in other areas of the pharmaceutical industry. The current market capitalization of the five companies is 44.6 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, 41.9 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan and 37.8 billion yuan.

Shen Wan is still optimistic about growth stocks in the pharmaceutical sector in 2011, and high growth can only enjoy high valuations. Analysts recommend taking the opportunity to grasp individual stocks based on the rhythm of the catalyst. In January, the main pushers are Dong E-Jiao and Hisun Pharmaceutical. The reason is that the donkey-hide gelatin block of Dong-E E-Jiao will further implement the value return and increase the price; the sales volume of the compound E-Jian mortar has already begun to increase rapidly, and the company has begun to lay out its own terminal network. The targeted issuance of Hisun Pharmaceutical will start. Under the trend of virtual integration of international industries, the company will become the preferred partner of multinational companies and the industrial transfer will deepen. Other companies that deserve attention are Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Yunnan Baiyao, Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Renfu Pharmaceutical, Renhe Pharmaceutical, Jiangcai Pharmaceutical, Sinopharm Co., Ltd., Hualan Bio and Ma Yinglong.

CICC believes that super growth can be selected from two paths. From the top down, “biopharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, brand specialty drugs” are the sub-sectors with the most promising future development prospects; from the bottom up, “innovation, integration” will be the search for super growth in the coming years. Key factor.

The stable portfolio recommended by CICC includes Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Yunnan Baiyao, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, Huadong Pharmaceutical, and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical; the growth portfolio includes Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Watson Bio, and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical. Coron Pharmaceuticals.

Analysts believe that considering the business flexibility of the next year, Kangmei Pharmaceutical and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical are worth the wait. From the first quarter, high performance and delivery at the end of the year are short-term triggers. Kelun Pharmaceuticals, Kangzhi Pharmaceuticals, and Watson Pharmaceuticals deserve attention.

“In the enjoyment of single-industry growth, we must also bear the risk of a single industry. This is the difference between industry funds and other funds. Although the pharmaceutical industry is an industry with few cycles, investors should pay attention to the risks of investing in a single industry. Investors will use industry funds as the industry configuration of the portfolio. If you are optimistic about pharmaceutical stocks and have little confidence in choosing individual stocks, you can choose industry funds as an alternative, said Li Wenjian. Fund dynamics

Shenwan Paris Bond Fund issuance

The Shenwan Paris stable benefit treasure fund is formally issued on January 4th. Investors can purchase through Huaxia Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Shenyin Wanguo Securities, etc., as well as SWS Paris counter and electronic direct sales channels. The operating expenses of the fund are locked in to ensure that the rates are at the lowest level among the current domestic second-tier debt bases, which can provide investors with greater room for revenue returns.

Hui Tian Fu Insurance Limited Sale

The Huitianfu Guaranteed Fund will be sold for a limited amount of 5 billion from January 4th, with a guaranteed capital cycle of 3 years. Investors can purchase in ICBC, Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China. The fund has set the ratio of capital preservation assets such as bonds and money market instruments to not less than 60%, and has built multiple capital protection lines.

E Fund 4 yuan accounted for 6 seats

As of December 31, 2010, a total of 40 funds (including closed-end funds) with a cumulative net worth of 4 yuan or more remained in the market. The longest-running fund of this type is E Fonda, which owns only six players. Its strategic growth, positive growth, Kexiang, Kehui, Kexun, and Kerui are among the four- and five-dollar funds.

Huatai Bai Rui shares good performance

As of December 31, 2010, of the 230 equity funds that had been in operation for one year, Huatai Bai Rui Value Growth Equity Fund was ranked 8th with an annual revenue of 22.18%, exceeding the benchmark of 31.10%, and entering the top 5%; Huatai Barry's industry-leading stock fund annual earnings of 12.83% ranked 33, surpassing the benchmark of 21.95% of the business performance, entering the top 15%; Huatai Bo Ruishengshi China's annual revenue of 6.62% ranked 69, entering the top 30%; while the same period 230 stock funds In 2010, it achieved an average return of 0.05%.

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