In 2018, the main pests and diseases of wheat in China are obviously heavier than normal years. The risk of recurrence of pests and diseases at the ear stage is large. According to the analysis of experts from the National Agricultural Technology Center, the main research and development of wheat, the main pests and diseases of wheat are expected to occur in 2018, with an area of ​​9.0. Billions of acres. Among them, the disease is 480 million mu and the insect pest is 420 million mu. Scab has a high prevalence risk in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huanghuai wheat area. Stripe rust is severely affected in the southern part of Huanghuai, Jianghan Plain, southwest and northwestern parts of the wheat, and wheat pupa is mostly in the northern part of China and the northern part of Huanghuai. Occurred, powdery mildew and sheath blight were common in high-yielding wheat areas.
First, the trend
(1) Wheat diseases
The mildew risk of scab is high, with an area of ​​100 million mu. Among them, Anhui and Jiangsu along the Huaihe River and its south, Hubei Jianghan Plain and other wheat areas have a high risk of pandemic, other wheat areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southern wheat area of ​​the Huanghuai area are at risk of prevalence, north of Huanghuai, southern part of North China, southwest and There are moderate epidemics in some wheat areas in the northwest.
Strip rust is generally biased, with an area of ​​60 million mu. Among them, Hubei, southern Henan, southwestern Shaanxi and Guanzhong West, southern Gansu and Jizhong mountainous areas, late-maturing wheat areas, Sichuan river basins, and Xinjiang Yili River valley areas are more serious, and other wheat areas in Huanghuai, Southwest, and Northwest China occur moderately. The ministry occurred lightly.
The overall incidence of sheath blight occurs, with an area of ​​130 million mu. Among them, the eastern part of Hubei and the Jianghan Plain, Anhui, Jiangsu, Huaibei and Jianghuai, as well as Henan, the east and west of the mountain, the wheat area is more serious, and the other wheat areas of Jianghuai, Huanghuai and North China occur moderately.
Powdery mildew occurs in moderately, with an area of ​​90 million mu. Among them, the wheat areas in Huaibei and Jianghuai, southern Gansu, southwestern Shanxi, northern Henan, and central and southern Shandong high-yield irrigation areas occurred in Jiangsu, and occurred in other areas of Huanghuai, North China, Southwest China and Northwest China.
Leaf rust is common in most wheat areas of the country, including total rot, stem rot, root rot, leaf blight, viral disease, smut, cyst nematode, snow rot fungus and other diseases in some wheat The district will cause certain harm.
(2) Wheat pests
The overall weight of the locusts occurred, with an area of ​​230 million mu. Among them, Shandong and Hebei occurred, Huanghuai, other wheat areas in North China, Sichuan in the southwestern wheat area and Ningxia in the northwest occurred heavily, and most of the other middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southwest and northwest occurred.
The wheat spiders are generally moderately occurring, with an area of ​​90 million mu. Among them, the western part of Henan Province and other places are more serious, and the Huanghuai and the northwestern part of the wheat area occur moderately, and the wheat areas in North China, Jianghuai and Southwest are lighter.
The sputum worms are generally lightly occurring, with an area of ​​15 million mu. Among them, high-density fields may occur in Shijiazhuang, Shandong Dezhou and Binzhou, and moderately in central and southern Hebei, and most of the other wheat areas in the northwest, north China and Huanghuai occur.
A generation of armyworms, cotton bollworms, wheat stem bees, gray planthoppers, wheat leaf bees, white eyebrows, grasshoppers and other pests will cause certain harm in some wheat areas.
Second, the basis of prediction
(1) The disease of autumn rot disease of bar rust is more than 3 years, and the base of other pests is low.
Strip rust autumn seedlings have a large area and a serious condition. The area of ​​the main area of ​​autumn seedlings in Gansu, Ningxia and Shaanxi is 3.808 million mu, which is the largest year since 2012. It is 55.1%, 76.3% and 94.8% higher than that in 2014-2016, and the local early-stage wheat field has many disease centers and conditions. weight. The area of ​​Gansu is 3.006 million mu, an increase of 94.8% year-on-year. The average ward rate in each region is 20%-60%, and the local area is 100%.
The average rate of diseased leaves was 0.01%-0.8%, which was 2-8 times of the same period of the previous year, and the highest in Tianshui Maiji District was 48.5%. Ningxia saw the disease on October 12, 2 days later than the year-on-year. It was the second early year since 2009; the area was 673,000 mu, which was doubled year-on-year; the diseased leaf rate was 1%-7.3%, and the average county of Tongxin County was 21.5. %, local retransmission of the field reached 42%.
Eight counties in Baoji and Xianyang of Shaanxi saw a disease, which increased by 2 year-on-year; the area of ​​129,000 mu was reduced by 0.5 million mu; the average ward rate of Qianyang County was 9.2%, higher than 6.3% of the previous year. See a doctor. In Xinjiang, there are two counties in Aksubai and Wensu, with an average morbidity rate of 45% and an average diseased leaf rate of 1.2%. Sichuan and Hubei respectively saw diseases in 29 counties and 2 cities and 3 counties of 9 cities. Compared with the same period of last year, Sichuan increased 8 counties, and Hubei reduced 8 counties. Most of the time was earlier than the previous year.
The disease of autumn blight of sheath blight is lighter than that of the same period of the previous year. The area of ​​Huanghuai and North China is common, with an area of ​​7.39 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%. The average disease rate was 3.4%, 2.4%, 2.1%, 1.8%, and 0.5% in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Anhui, respectively. Most of the wheat areas were lower than the same period of the previous year. Compared with the same period of last year, Hebei increased by 78.2. %, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 25.8%, 41.7%, and 16.7%, respectively, and Shanxi remained flat.
The incidence of powdery mildew is relatively common, with an area of ​​5.41 million mu, which is the largest annual incidence since 2010, but the disease is lighter than the previous year and the same period of recent years. The average diseased leaf rate was 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.9% in Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi, respectively. The southern part of Ningxia, western Henan, and southern Hebei were sporadic, and the condition was lighter than the same period of the previous year.
The amount of insects in most of the locusts was lower than that in the same period of the previous year. The Jianghuai, Huanghuai, North China and Northwest wheat areas generally occurred, with an area of ​​13.4 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%. The average number of sputum is 12.5, 5.8, 3.7, 3.3, 3.0, 2.3, 2.0, and 1.5 in Shanxi, Beijing, Shandong, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Anhui, Hebei, and Henan, respectively. The average amount of insects in the same period of the same period of the previous year; compared with the same period of last year, Shanxi, Beijing and Ningxia increased by 7.0, 2.8 and 1.1 respectively, while the other most wheat areas decreased by 0.1-1.6.
The amount of wheat in most of the wheat spiders was lower than that in the same period of the previous year. The area of ​​Huanghuai and North China was 7.2 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%. The average number of trips per foot was 26.0, 10.0, 5.9, 5.7, 4.3, 3.6 and 0.2 in Shanxi, Shandong, Anhui, Shaanxi, Henan, Hebei and Ningxia, respectively. Hebei, Shandong and Shanxi increased year-on-year. 1.8-8.3 heads, other wheat areas reduced by 1.6-19.1 heads, the average amount is the lowest year since 2010.
The density of insects in most areas of the midwifery is lower than that of the previous year and the year. In the autumn soil survey, the average amount of insects per person was 1.4, 1.0, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.3 in Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and Beijing, respectively, which was 28.4%-57.1% lower than normal and the same period of last year. The density of insects in local fields such as Zhengding in Hebei and Fufeng in Shaanxi was 228 and 33 respectively, and the number of high-density fields and insects decreased significantly.
(2) Wheat variety layout and planting system are conducive to the occurrence of pests and diseases
There was no significant change in the layout of winter wheat varieties in most of the country, and the level of resistance to diseases and insect pests remained low. The rust resistance of planting varieties in most wheat areas is poor, because the frequency of new disease-causing groups such as No. 34 in strips increases, and the loss of rust resistance in strip rust-prone areas is accelerated. The main varieties of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Jianghuai, Huanghuai and North China wheat areas are generally susceptible varieties of scab, and some of the diseases often develop the resistance of common scavengers to the common agents;
The delay in the high-yield seeding period of cross-region introduction will make the probability of encountering the mildew disease and the rainy weather in spring more high, which increases the risk of the epidemic of scab. The main varieties of the main producing areas of Jianghuai, Huanghuai and North China are generally poorly resistant to major diseases such as powdery mildew, sheath blight and aphids. In addition, the high seeding rate, large population and closed field in recent years are also beneficial. The occurrence of diseases such as scab, powdery mildew, sheath blight, and aphids.
(3) Meteorological conditions in winter and spring are favorable for the occurrence of pests and diseases
According to the prediction of the National Climate Center, in the winter of 2017, most of the North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwestern winter wheat area have high temperatures and normal precipitation, which is beneficial to winter pests and winter pests such as wheat stripe rust. In the spring of 2018, the precipitation in Jianghan and Jianghuai wheat areas is close to normal. The high probability of continuous rainy weather in the area of ​​wheat heading and flowering in this area is conducive to the increase of scab. The precipitation in southwestern wheat area is more than 1-5%, which is beneficial to wheat stripe rust. Spring is popular; the temperature in southern China, Huanghuai and other places is 0.5-1 °C higher, and the precipitation is normal or less, which is very beneficial to the occurrence of wheat aphids.
The website of this paper: The main pests and diseases of wheat in the country in 2018 are obviously heavier than the risk of recurrence of pests and diseases in the perennial panicle
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